With less than 24 hours to go before registration closes and 421 racers currently registered, we decided to take a look at what the super computers over at Road-Results.com are predicting for Sunday. As always these predictions are almost certainly wildly inaccurate and contain any number of omissions. Any additions, revisions or criticisms may be directed to the CRCA Facebook page where they may be appreciated, mocked or even ignored: https://www.facebook.com/crca.net
If you haven’t already registered, make sure to do so before registration closes (absolutely no day of registration): https://www.bikereg.com/Net/18524
Big Wheels Championship – Men
The Big Wheels Championship is tough to predict because day of registration is allowed for this exciting charitable event. That said Road Results predicts that Matthew Vandivort (CRCA/Sixcycle-RK&O) will be victorious in a men’s category that has just two registrants – Vandivort and his teammate Oliver Davis (CRCA/Sixcycle-RK&O). That said Vandivort’s ability to win is predicated upon avoiding the injuries he sustained in last year’s Big Wheels Championship (yes that happened).
Big Wheels Championship – Women
On the Women’s side Lisa Kennish (CRCA/Asphalt Green Cycling Team) is the predicted champion but we’ll downgrade her potential since she’ll be at the race before 6AM to help setup barricades. That leaves Stephanie Kaplan (CRCA/Asphalt Green Cycling Team) as next in line (perhaps benefiting from the fact that Big Wheels fit her perfectly), just ahead of Alie Giamie (CRCA/Houlihan Lokey). Good luck to everyone who comes out to race Big Wheels for a great cause – it really is a blast and there are fun prizes up for grabs!
Men Cat 5
The supercomputers at Road Results appear to be thoroughly confused by the Men’s Cat 5 field with limited prior results to go on. That said Road Results is predicting that Jeffrey Lee comes out on top, with Sean Campbell (Crosshairs Cycling p/b Spy Optic) and Carl Robinson (GS Gotham/TOGA Bikes) rounding out the podium predictions. Given the limited data set available for this field we’ll leave it at that.
Women Cat 4
The Orchard Beach Crit features three separate women’s field with the Women’s Cat 4 field as the largest of these fields with an impressive 31 racers currently registered. The predictions for the top step are close but Road Results has Julia Simon (CRCA/Houlihan Lokey) who finished fourth at the Cherry Blossom Challenge edging out Barb Blakey (CRCA/Asphalt Green) who is coming off a fourth place at Battenkill. Rounding out the podium prediction is Christina Malfer (CRCA/Asphalt Green Development Team) who recently finished 11th in a Bethel Spring Series open field. Though with 28 other women battling for the podium it could be anyone opening a bottle of sparking cider following a victory on Sunday.
Men Cat 4/5
Race results predicts Stephen Chang (CRCA/CycleLife USA/GF Capital) will take the win on Sunday following up on an early season podium at the Bethel Spring Series. Next inline in the predictions is Manuel Frias (Montecci Cycling) and Kenneth Luna (CRCA/WD Racing) who we believe was most recently seen wearing the sprinters jersey at the Lucarelli & Castaldi Cup and thus can’t be ignored as a threat for the overall victory. That said the crowd favorite for this field should definitely be Matt Long (CRCA/Asphalt Green Cycling Team) whose I WILL FOUNDATION is the sponsor of the 2013 Orchard Beach Crit (Matt will also be racing in the early Men’s Cat 5 field).
Women Cat 3/4
The Women Cat 3/4 field may be the most competitive field of the day with a number of strong riders in the field. Road Results is piling the pressure on CRCA/Asphalt Green Cycling Team, with three of the predicted top five from that sub-team. That said the top step prediction goes to Carol-Lynn Mills (CRCA/Houlihan Lokey) who’s recent results include no fewer than 6 top five finishes at the Bethel Spring Series in an always challenging Women’s open field. Behind Carol-Lynn Mills are the CRCA/Asphalt Green duo of Danielle Kosecki and Amiee Layton who recently went 2nd and 3rd at the Tour of Battenkill. Lucia Deng (CRCA/Rockstar Games/Signature Cycles) may also be in the mix following her recent win in the Binghamton Circuit Race Women’s Cat 4 field.
Men Cat 4
As with the Men 4/5 field, Road Results predicts that Stephen Chang (CRCA/CycleLife USA/GF Capital) will take the top step of this nearly full field, followed closely behind by Joshua Salit (Tarmac Cycling/Iron Bridge Consulting), Carl Nelson (Flying Acec Cycling Club), Oliver Davis (CRCA/Sixcycle-RK&O) and Will Vallar. Though with a full field of strong finishers, including Cedrick Gousse (CRCA/siggi’s/NYVelocity) who is coming off a 2nd place finish at the most recent CRCA Club Race, this one is anyone’s guess. Maybe it will be Steven Patak (CIS: First Team) or Ernesto Parades (CRCA/RBNY Racing) who survived field sprint mayhem to finish 1-2 this past weekend in Prospect Park.
For the first time in its long (and partially interrupted) history Orchard Beach Crit includes a juniors field. Registration looks a bit light for this year’s competition but we’re excited to have the next generation of New York City cyclists competing on Sunday. According to Road Results Sam Morkal-Williams (CRCA/Junior Development) will take the win ahead of fellow CRCA/Junior Development racer Sammy Moseley. While the field may be small this promises to be exciting racing as riders attack and counter attack one another.
With relatively light Master’s registration (come on guys!) Road Results predicts Chris Chong Tenn (CRCA/Diehard) will come out on the top step, though according to Road Results it doesn’t appear that he has raced yet in 2013. Setting aside the super computers there are a number of strong riders in the field that are going to be in contention. Mihael Ginghina (CRCA/TARGETTRAINING Tri & Cycle) is predicted to finish 8th but is coming off a strong Spring Series campaign, Matt Seaton (CRCA/Rapha Racing) won the first CRCA Club Race and the returning Orchard Beach 1/2/3 Champion – Greg Olsen (ChampSys p/b Stan’s NoTubes) – will be a force to reckon with in this small but stacked field.
Women Cat 1/2/3
The Women’s Cat 1/2/3 race is the smallest of the three women’s fields on Sunday, but it has a number of strong racers who will be in contention to be crowned the Orchard Beach Crit Women’s Champion. According to Road Results Amanda Braverman (CRCA/Stan’s NoTubes p/b enduranceWERX) will be on the top step following two wins, a second and two third’s at the Bethel Spring Series as part of the Stage-1/FusionTHINK team. According to Road Results, Braverman will be followed by 2012 Orchard Beach Crit Champion Laura Summers (Central Wheel/GHCC) who is returning to defend her crown having already scored a win at the Bethel Spring Series. Carol-Lynn Mills (CRCA/Houlihan Lokey) and Danielle Kosecki (CRCA/Asphalt Green Cycling Team) slot into third and fourth in the predicted results but both will have raced earlier in the day while Camie Kornely (CRCA/Stan’s NoTubes p/b enduranceWERX), who is predicted to finish fifth, will be fresh for this race and looking to upset the super computer predictions, perhaps working to support teammate Amanda Braverman.
Men Cat 3
The Men’s Cat 3 field is relatively small but features a number of riders who have waged successful spring racing campaigns. According to Road Results just as with the Master’s field the top step will go to Chris Chong Tenn (CRCA/Diehard) but given this will be his second race of the day (and its not clear that he has raced yet in 2013) it will be interesting to see if he can match expectations (no pressure Chris). The predicted podium is rounded out by Antonio Munoz (CRCA/Foundation) and Gregory Dorsch (Black Tie Sports / Spine) who is coming off an early season win at the Bethel Spring Series. There are a number of contenders slightly further down the Road Results predictions including the CRCA/Junior Development duo of Sammy Moseley and Samuel Morkal Williams who have both cracked a number of impressive results this spring.
Men Cat 1/2/3
The Men’s Cat 1/2/3 field is the big show on Sunday with a $1,750 prize pool on tap and any number of strong riders in attendance including 2012 Orchard Beach Crit Champion Greg Olsen (ChampSys p/b Stan’s NoTubes) who will be looking to defend his crown. Even with Greg Olsen in action, however, according to Road Results the top step will go to Anthony Lowe (WS United/MangoSeed/Lucarelli&Castaldi) who is a fearsome sprinter but with just two races included in his 2013 results it’s not clear what form he is on. The Road Results podium prediction is rounded out with Adam Alexander (CRCA/Foundation) who most recently appears to have been racing at the Presbyterian Hospital Crit and Scott Savory (We Stand United W.S.) who has a number of top 10 finishes already this Spring. Further down the predicted results is Gary Steinberg (Brauer/Mick Management) who finished a close second in the 2012 edition of the Orchard Beach Crit.